JPMorgan Says Tesla's About To Have A Bad Time

• Tesla stock has recovered about 7% since its big drop earlier this week. It is still nearly down 50% since its all time high on December 17. 
• JPMorgan predicts that Tesla will deliver about 355,000 units, down 20% of its original prediction of 444,000. 
• The firm also thinks that Tesla stock will eventually drop to $120 per share. 

I think anyone involved in the auto industry in some way is kind of burnt out with the constant changes that are now the hallmark of the second Trump administration. A lot of these changes seem to be at the behest of Elon Musk himself, either directly through President Donald Trump or via his DOGE para-government apparatus.

These changes aren’t exactly popular amongst the base that would normally purchase Tesla vehicles, and thus, it seems like it is once again time for Musk and Tesla to pay the piper. This week JPMorgan issued a not-so-good prediction for the brand: this will be the worst result for deliveries that Tesla has seen in three years. 

Specifically, JPMorgan cut Tesla’s delivery forecast down by 20% to 355,000 units, down from the initial analyst projection of 444,000. The firm's initial projection was already a little higher than the 430,000 units that most everyone else in this arena had already agreed upon. It also thinks that Tesla’s stock still has a long way to go, with the potential to hit $120 per share, or about half of what it is now. 

There are several reasons for this. For starters, the Trump administration's wanton bludgeoning of the U.S. market via tariffs has only served to hurt car companies, including Tesla. It’s anyone’s guess what tariffs car companies and all associated suppliers will eventually be subject to. Today, it could be nothing. Or, if Canada, Mexico, the European Union or China somehow slight Trump in any way, then the tariffs are on. That’s no good for any functional company that wants to plan for the future. 

Next, Elon Musk’s right-wing exploits on X (née Twitter) and in real-life politics are now completely unignorable. His words and speech have moved past simple inflammatory tweets on social media, and well into the realm of influencing global politics. His influence is commonly perceived as dangerous by any sort of minority or non-right-wing person. He straight up called Canada "not a real country," feeding into the growing not-a-call-but-actually-a-call for the annexation of America's neighbor to the north. That’s only emboldened Canadians (and others across the globe) to boycott the brand.

Moreover, sales have started to collapse in much of Europe. The Chinese market’s sales are still somewhat strong, but that won’t be enough to keep that momentum. Also, plenty of Chinese brands have been encroaching on Tesla’s market share, something even the New York Times covered this week.

Photo by: BYD

Also, the cars are just kind of old. The Model 3 and Model Y may have been updated, the latter much more recently, but they’re essentially not all that much different than the cars they replaced. Add in Musk’s behavior, inflation and high interest rates and Tesla has the perfect storm for reduced sales.

Tesla’s woes have come out right in the middle of Q1, so we probably won’t know for sure what the damage is until Q2 numbers are released in a few weeks. Either way, it’s not looking so good for Tesla. JPMorgan says that Tesla’s fall currently “has no equal” in the automotive market. 

“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly," the firm said. 

Contact the author: Kevin.Williams@InsideEVs.com